La distribución global del ingreso. De la caída del muro de Berlín a la gran recesión

Christoph Lakner, Branko Milanovic

Resumen


Este artículo presenta una base de datos recién compilada y mejorada de encuestas nacionales de hogares entre 1988 y 2008. En 2008, el índice global de Gini es de un 70,5% después de disminuir en cerca de 2 puntos Gini en este periodo. Cuando se ajusta por el probable subregistro de los ingresos superiores de las encuestas usando la brecha entre el consumo de cuentas nacionales y el promedio de las encuestas junto con una imputación tipo Pareto de la cola superior, resulta un Gini global mucho más alto de casi un 76%. Con tal ajuste la tendencia decreciente del Gini casi desaparece. El seguimiento de la evolución de los deciles-país individuales muestra los elementos subyacentes que impulsan los cambios en la distribución global: China salió de los rangos más bajos, en el proceso se modificó la forma total de la distribución global del ingreso y se creó una importante clase “mediana” global que transformó la distribución de dos picos de 1988 en una de un pico. Los “ganadores” fueron los deciles-país que en 1988 estaba alrededor de la mediana de la distribución global, el 90% de los cuales, en términos de población, son de Asia. Los “perdedores” fueron los deciles-país que en 1988 estaban alrededor del percentil 85 de la distribución global, casi el 90% de los cuales, en términos de población, son de economías maduras.


Palabras clave


distribución del ingreso; globalización; ingresos superiores

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v17n32.03

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Publicado: 2015-06-26 15:09:12

Copyright (c) 2015 Christoph Lakner, Branko Milanovic

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Última actualización: Mayo 2017