Brexit, paz y Trump: enseñanzas para los economistas

Mario García Molina, Liliana Alejandra Chicaíza

Resumen


Este ensayo analiza tres procesos electorales que tuvieron resultados inesperados: la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea, el rechazo del acuerdo de paz en Colombia y la elección de Trump como presidente de Estados Unidos. Subraya tres aspectos: las predicciones se hicieron en una situación de incertidumbre con base en reglas o convenciones, las campañas involucraron fuertes elementos emocionales y los resultados fueron afectados por factores culturales (identitarios y religiosos) y no sólo económicos. La economía estándar omite tales factores aunque debería tomarlos en cuenta.


Palabras clave


Brexit, proceso de paz, Trump, psicología, sesgos cognitivos, toma de decisiones

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Referencias


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v20n38.06

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Publicado: 2018-04-04 09:20:52

Copyright (c) 2018 Mario García Molina, Liliana Alejandra Chicaíza

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Última actualización: Mayo 2017