Las estimaciones erróneas de los daños del cambio climático

Erroneous estimates of damages from climate change

Contenido principal del artículo

Steve Keen
Steve Keen
Timothy M. Lenton
Antoine Godin
Devrim Yilmaz
Matheus Grasselli
Timothy J. Garrett

Resumen

Los economistas predicen que los daños del calentamiento global serán de un 2,1% de la producción mundial si la temperatura media de la superficie del planeta aumenta en 3°C, y de un 7,9% si aumenta 6°C. Esas estimaciones contrastan con la predicción de los científicos: la fuerte reducción de la habitabilidad humana debida al cambio climático. Pero los modelos que usan para hacer esas predicciones influyen en el debate internacional sobre el tema y en las prescripciones de política. Aquí revisamos ese trabajo empírico y mostramos que subestima gravemente los daños del cambio climático al cometer varios errores. Y más importante, que el modelo de evaluación integrada DICE no genera un colapso económico, independientemente del nivel de daños. Debido a tales defectos, esas estimaciones se deberían rechazar por no ser científicas, y los modelos calibrados con ellas no se deberían utilizar para evaluar los riesgos económicos del cambio climático ni para proponer políticas que atenúen los daños.

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