La racionalidad en la formación de expectativas. Crítica de la hipótesis de expectativas racionales
Redistribution, inequality, growth
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Bermúdez, C. 2014. La racionalidad en la formación de expectativas. Crítica de la hipótesis de expectativas racionales. Revista de Economía Institucional. 16, 30 (jun. 2014).
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Jun 13, 2014
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La hipótesis de expectativas racionales domina los programas de investigación macroeconómica desde su surgimiento en los años setenta. Este marco metodológico dio a la macroeconomía fundamentos dinámicos consistentes con la teoría de la elección racional. Sin embargo, el costo ha sido muy alto: desapareció la posibilidad de concebir desequilibrios a nivel agregado y, con ella, la utilidad de la política económica. Este artículo revisa diversas críticas a la hipótesis de expectativas racionales y expone otra forma de microfundamentación que permite explicar los fenómenos de desequilibrio.
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Referencias (VER)
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Davidson, P. “Rational expectations: A fallacious foundation for studying crucial decision-making processes”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 5, 2, 1982, pp. 182-198.
Davidson, P. “Is probability theory relevant for uncertainty? A post Keynesian perspective”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 1, 1991, pp. 129-143.
Davidson, P. “Risk and uncertainty in economics”, presentado en la conferencia The economic recession and the state of economics, Westminster, London, 2009.
Friedman, B. “Survey evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations”, Journal of Monetary Economics 6, 4, 1980, pp. 453-465.
Friedman, M. “Unemployment versus inflation? An evaluation of the Phillips curve”, London, Institute of Economic Affairs, 1975.
Gerrard, B. “Beyond the logical theory of rational choice”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 37-47. inversión no se verían afectados y se comportaría de igual modo si la inflación
fuera de un 10% o de un 1.000%. En cambio, si se permite que los agentes se “desorienten” cuando desaparece un mercado, y no saben a qué precio transar, surge entonces una explicación micro fundamentada de las crisis, a partir de la ruptura de los arreglos contractuales o “promesas rotas a gran escala” (Leijonhufvud, 2003; Heymann, 2006).
Granger, C. W. J. y P. Newbold. “Spurious regression in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics 2, 1974, pp. 111-120.
Hargreaves H., S. “Post-modernity and new conceptions of rationality in economics”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 48-63.
Heiner, R. “The origin of predictable behavior”, The American Economic Review 73, 4, 1983, pp. 560-595.
Heymann, D. “Macroeconomía de las promesas rotas”, Revista de Economía Política de Buenos Aires 1, 2, 2006, pp. 27-53.
Hodgson, G. “Calculation, habits and action”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 26-36.
Hoover, K. “The methodology of empirical macroeconomics”, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Hoover, K.; S. Johansen y K. Juselius, “Allowing the data to speak freely: The macroeconometrics of the cointegrated vector autoregression”, The American Economic Review 98, 2008, pp. 251-255.
Johansen, S. “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models”, Econometrica 59,1991, pp. 1551-1580.
Johansen, S. y A. Swensen. “Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models”, Journal of Econometrics 93, 1, 1999, pp. 73-91.
Johansen, S. y A. Swensen. “More on testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models: Restricted constant and linear term”, The Econometrics Journal 7, 2, 2004, pp. 389-397.
Laidler, D. “The new-classical contribution to macroeconomics”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, marzo de 1997, pp. 27-55.
Leijonhufvud, A. “Macroeconomic crises and the social order”, conferencia en la Universidad Nacional de la Plata, 2003 [www-ceel. economia.unitn.it/staff/leijonhufvud/files/argent.pdf ].
Leijonhufvud, A. “Towards a not-too-rational macroeconomics”, Southern Economic Journal 60, 1, 1993, pp. 1-13.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Expectations and the neutrality of money, Journal of Economic Theory 4, 1972, pp. 115-138.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Methods and problems in business cycle theory”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12, 4, 1980, pp. 696-715.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Studies in business cycle theory”, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 1981.
Lovell, M. “Tests of the rational expectations hypothesis”, The American Economic Review 76, 1, 1986, pp. 110-24.
McCloskey, D. “The rhetoric of economics”, Journal of Economic Literature 22, 2, 1984, p. 575-578.
Müller, C. “Interpretation of cointegration coefficients: A paradox, a solution and empirical evidence”, The Open Access Publication Server of the ZBW, n.º 82, Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, 2003.
Muth, J. F. “Short run forecasts of business activity”, Indiana University, mimeo, 1985.
Nelson, C. y C. Plosser. “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics 10, 2, 1982, pp. 139-162.
Ross, D. “The economics of the sub-personal. Two reaserch programs”, B. Montero y M. White, eds., Economics and the mind, London, Routledge, 2007, pp. 41-57.
Sent, E. M. The evolving rationality of rational expectations: An assessment of Thomas Sargent’s achievements, New York, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Snowdon, B. y B. Vane. Modern macroeconomics. Its origins, development and current state, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2005.
Syll, L. P. “Rational expectations- a fallacious foundation for macroeconomics in a non-ergodic world”, Real-World Economic Review 62, 2012, pp. 34-50.
Vercelli A. “Rationality, learning and complexity”, B. Agarwal y A. Vercelli, eds., Psychology, rationality and economic behavior – Challenging standard assumptions, London, Palgrave MacMillan, 2005, pp. 58-83.
Vercelli A. Methodological foundations of macroeconomics. Keynes and Lucas, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Westerlund, J. “Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics 23, 2008, pp. 193-233.
Blaug, M. The methodology of economics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1980.
Boland, L. The foundations of economic method – A Popperian perspective, London, Routledge, 2003.
Cartwright, N. “The vanity of rigour in economics”, CPNSS discussion paper, 1999.
Cartwright, N. “Fundamentalism vs. patchwork of laws”, D. Papineau, ed., The philosophy of science, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1996, pp. 314-326.
Davidson, P. “Rational expectations: A fallacious foundation for studying crucial decision-making processes”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 5, 2, 1982, pp. 182-198.
Davidson, P. “Is probability theory relevant for uncertainty? A post Keynesian perspective”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 1, 1991, pp. 129-143.
Davidson, P. “Risk and uncertainty in economics”, presentado en la conferencia The economic recession and the state of economics, Westminster, London, 2009.
Friedman, B. “Survey evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations”, Journal of Monetary Economics 6, 4, 1980, pp. 453-465.
Friedman, M. “Unemployment versus inflation? An evaluation of the Phillips curve”, London, Institute of Economic Affairs, 1975.
Gerrard, B. “Beyond the logical theory of rational choice”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 37-47. inversión no se verían afectados y se comportaría de igual modo si la inflación
fuera de un 10% o de un 1.000%. En cambio, si se permite que los agentes se “desorienten” cuando desaparece un mercado, y no saben a qué precio transar, surge entonces una explicación micro fundamentada de las crisis, a partir de la ruptura de los arreglos contractuales o “promesas rotas a gran escala” (Leijonhufvud, 2003; Heymann, 2006).
Granger, C. W. J. y P. Newbold. “Spurious regression in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics 2, 1974, pp. 111-120.
Hargreaves H., S. “Post-modernity and new conceptions of rationality in economics”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 48-63.
Heiner, R. “The origin of predictable behavior”, The American Economic Review 73, 4, 1983, pp. 560-595.
Heymann, D. “Macroeconomía de las promesas rotas”, Revista de Economía Política de Buenos Aires 1, 2, 2006, pp. 27-53.
Hodgson, G. “Calculation, habits and action”, B. Gerrard, ed., The economics of rationality, London, Routledge, 2006, pp. 26-36.
Hoover, K. “The methodology of empirical macroeconomics”, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Hoover, K.; S. Johansen y K. Juselius, “Allowing the data to speak freely: The macroeconometrics of the cointegrated vector autoregression”, The American Economic Review 98, 2008, pp. 251-255.
Johansen, S. “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models”, Econometrica 59,1991, pp. 1551-1580.
Johansen, S. y A. Swensen. “Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models”, Journal of Econometrics 93, 1, 1999, pp. 73-91.
Johansen, S. y A. Swensen. “More on testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models: Restricted constant and linear term”, The Econometrics Journal 7, 2, 2004, pp. 389-397.
Laidler, D. “The new-classical contribution to macroeconomics”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, marzo de 1997, pp. 27-55.
Leijonhufvud, A. “Macroeconomic crises and the social order”, conferencia en la Universidad Nacional de la Plata, 2003 [www-ceel. economia.unitn.it/staff/leijonhufvud/files/argent.pdf ].
Leijonhufvud, A. “Towards a not-too-rational macroeconomics”, Southern Economic Journal 60, 1, 1993, pp. 1-13.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Expectations and the neutrality of money, Journal of Economic Theory 4, 1972, pp. 115-138.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Methods and problems in business cycle theory”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12, 4, 1980, pp. 696-715.
Lucas, R. Jr. “Studies in business cycle theory”, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 1981.
Lovell, M. “Tests of the rational expectations hypothesis”, The American Economic Review 76, 1, 1986, pp. 110-24.
McCloskey, D. “The rhetoric of economics”, Journal of Economic Literature 22, 2, 1984, p. 575-578.
Müller, C. “Interpretation of cointegration coefficients: A paradox, a solution and empirical evidence”, The Open Access Publication Server of the ZBW, n.º 82, Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, 2003.
Muth, J. F. “Short run forecasts of business activity”, Indiana University, mimeo, 1985.
Nelson, C. y C. Plosser. “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics 10, 2, 1982, pp. 139-162.
Ross, D. “The economics of the sub-personal. Two reaserch programs”, B. Montero y M. White, eds., Economics and the mind, London, Routledge, 2007, pp. 41-57.
Sent, E. M. The evolving rationality of rational expectations: An assessment of Thomas Sargent’s achievements, New York, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Snowdon, B. y B. Vane. Modern macroeconomics. Its origins, development and current state, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2005.
Syll, L. P. “Rational expectations- a fallacious foundation for macroeconomics in a non-ergodic world”, Real-World Economic Review 62, 2012, pp. 34-50.
Vercelli A. “Rationality, learning and complexity”, B. Agarwal y A. Vercelli, eds., Psychology, rationality and economic behavior – Challenging standard assumptions, London, Palgrave MacMillan, 2005, pp. 58-83.
Vercelli A. Methodological foundations of macroeconomics. Keynes and Lucas, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.
Westerlund, J. “Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics 23, 2008, pp. 193-233.