La revolución de los nuevos clásicos: redes, influencia y metodología
The Revolution of the New Classics: networks, influence and methodology
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Salazar, B. y Otero, D. 2015. La revolución de los nuevos clásicos: redes, influencia y metodología. Revista de Economía Institucional. 17, 32 (jun. 2015), 39–69. DOI:https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v17n32.02.
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La revolución de los nuevos clásicos ha sido contada como un rápido y fulminante asalto al paradigma keynesiano, que logró la unanimidad inmediata por la fuerza irresistible de su método científico. Después de estudiar la red de citaciones de los siete artículos de política macroeconómica elegidos por Lucas y Sargent, más Lucas (1976) y Lucas y Sargent (1978), encontramos que las líneas de fractura –asociadas al keynesianismo y a la división Noreste-Medio Oeste de los departamentos de Economía– se mantuvieron entre 1976 y 2013. Los que citaban a Lucas casi nunca citaban a Fischer (1977) y viceversa. La red siempre estuvo dividida en dos, tres y más componentes, que ocupaban fracciones cambiantes de la estructura total, reflejando influencias, patrones de citación y generaciones divergentes. La revolución ocurrió en Chicago, Minnesota y Carnegie-Mellon, y se extendió a otros países a través de discípulos, sin lograr nunca un dominio total.
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De Vroey, "Lucas on the Lucasian transformation of macroeconomics: An assessment", IRES, Universidad de Lovaina, 2010.
De Vroey, M. "Microfoundations: A decisive dividing line between Keynesian and new classical macroeconomics?", discussion paper 2010030, IRES, Universidad de Lovaina, 2011.
Fischer, S. "Long-term contracts, rational expectations, and the optimal money supply rule", Journal of Political Economy 85, 1, 1977, pp. 191-205.
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Lucas, R.E. Jr. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1 1, 1976, pp. 19-46.
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Mankiw, N.G. "The macroeconomist as scientist and engineer", Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, 4, 2006, pp. 29-46.
McCallum, B. "Price-level stickiness and the feasibility of monetary stabilization policy with rational expectations", Journal of Political Economy 85, 3, 1977, pp. 627-634.
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Mishkin, F. "The rational expectations revolution: A review of Preston Miller, ed., The rational expectations revolutions: Readings from the frontline", Cambridge, MA, NBER working paper No. 5043, 1995.
Muth, J.F. "Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts", Journal of the American Statistical Association 55, 290, 1960, pp. 299-306.
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Planck, M. Scientific autobiography and other papers, Nueva York, Philosophical Library, 1949.
Price, D. J. "Networks of scientific papers", Science 149, 1965, pp. 510-515.
Sargent, T.J. "Rational expectations, the real rate of interest, and the natural rate of unemployment", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, 1973, pp. 429-480.
Sargent, T.J. y N. Wallace. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy", Studies in Monetary Economics 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1974.
Sargent, T.J. y N. Wallace. "Rational expectations, the optimal monetary instrument, and the optimal money supply rule", Journal of Political Economy 83, 2, 1975, pp. 241-254.
Seidman, L. "The New Classical counter-revolution: A false path for macroeconomics", Eastern Economic Journal 31, 1, 2005, pp. 131-140.
Sims, C. "Comparisons of inter-war and post-war business cycles: Monetarism reconsidered", American Economic Review 70, 2, 1980, pp. 250-257.
Solow, R.M. "Summary and evaluation", After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of high inflation and high unemployment, Proceedings of a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference, Edgartown, Massachusetts, junio de 1978.
Wang, D.; C. Song y A.L. Barabási. "Quantifying long-term scientific impact", Science 342, 2013, pp. 127-132.
Woodford, M. "Revolution and evolution in Twentieth-Century macroeconomics", presentado en la conferencia Frontiers of the Mind in the Twenty-First Century, Washington, Library of Congress, junio de 1999, pp. 14-18.
Woodford, M. "Convergence in macroeconomics: Elements of the new synthesis", American Economics Journal: Macroeconomics 1, 1, 2009, pp. 267-279.
Barabási, A. L. y R. Albert. "Emergence of scaling in random networks", Science 286, 1999, pp. 509-512.
Barro, R. "New Classicals and Keynesians, or the good guys and the bad guys", Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 125, 3, 1989, pp. 263-273.
Barro, R. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy", Journal of Monetary Economics 2, 1 1976, pp. 1-32.
Blanchard, O. "Backward and forward solutions for economies with rational expectations", American Economic Review 69, 2, 1979, pp. 114-118.
Blanchard, O. y C. Kahn. "The solution of linear difference models under rational expectations", Econometrica 48, 5, 1980, pp. 1305-1311.
Blinder, A. 2001. "Keeping the Keynesian faith. (An interview with introduction by Brian Snowdon)", World Economics 2, 2, pp. 105-140.
Blinder, A. "Keynes, Lucas and scientific progress", American Economic Review 77, 2, 1987, pp.130-136.
Blinder, A. "Keynes after Lucas", Eastern Economic Journal 12, 3, 1986, pp. 209-216.
De Vroey, M. 2009. "New classical/real business cycle macroeconomics. The anatomy of a revolution", discussion paper 2009026, IRES, Universidad de Lovaina, 2009.
De Vroey, "Lucas on the Lucasian transformation of macroeconomics: An assessment", IRES, Universidad de Lovaina, 2010.
De Vroey, M. "Microfoundations: A decisive dividing line between Keynesian and new classical macroeconomics?", discussion paper 2010030, IRES, Universidad de Lovaina, 2011.
Fischer, S. "Long-term contracts, rational expectations, and the optimal money supply rule", Journal of Political Economy 85, 1, 1977, pp. 191-205.
Fischer, S. "Robert E. Lucas' Nobel Memorial Prize", Scandinavian Economic Journal 98, 1996, pp. 11-31.
Garfield, E. "Citation index - Its theory and applications in science, technology, and humanities", Filadelfia, Institute for Scientific Information Press, 1979.
Garfield, E.; I. Sher y R. J. Torpie. "The use of citation data in writing the history of science", Filadelfia, Institute for Scientific Information Press, 1964.
Hummon, N. P. y P. Doreian. "Connectivity in a citation network: The development of DNA theory", Social Networks 11, 1989, pp. 39-63.
Johnson, H. "The Keynesian revolution and the monetarist counterrevolution", American Economic Review 61, 2, 1971, pp. 1-14.
Klamer, A. Conversations with economists, Totowa, NJ, Rowman & Allanheld Publishers, 1984.
Kuhn, T. S. The structure of scientific revolutions [1962], Chicago, Chicago University Press, 2012.
Laidler, D. "Three revolutions in macroeconomics: Their nature and influence", Economic Policy Research Institute working paper 20134, University of Western Ontario, 2013.
Lucas, R.E. Jr. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1 1, 1976, pp. 19-46.
Lucas, R.E. y T.J. Sargent. "After Keynesian macroeconomics", After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of high inflation and high unemployment, Proceedings of a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference, Edgartown, Massachusetts, junio de 1978.
Lucas, R.E. Jr. y T.J. Sargent, eds., Rational expectations and econometric practice, Minneapolis, Minnesota, University Press, 1981.
Mankiw, N.G. "The macroeconomist as scientist and engineer", Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, 4, 2006, pp. 29-46.
McCallum, B. "Price-level stickiness and the feasibility of monetary stabilization policy with rational expectations", Journal of Political Economy 85, 3, 1977, pp. 627-634.
McCallum, B. "The current state of the policy-ineffectiveness debate", American Economic Review 69, 1979, pp. 285-292.
Mishkin, F. "The rational expectations revolution: A review of Preston Miller, ed., The rational expectations revolutions: Readings from the frontline", Cambridge, MA, NBER working paper No. 5043, 1995.
Muth, J.F. "Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts", Journal of the American Statistical Association 55, 290, 1960, pp. 299-306.
Muth, J.F. "Rational expectations and the theory of price movements", Econometrica 29, 3, 1961, pp. 315-335.
Newman, M.E.J. "The first-mover advantage in scientific publications", 2008, arXiv: 0809.0522v1, [physics.soc-ph].
Newman, M.E.J. Networks: An introduction, Nueva York, Oxford University Press, 2010.
Newman, M.E.J. "Prediction of highly cited papers", 2013, arXiv: 1310.8220v1, [physics.soc-ph].
Planck, M. Scientific autobiography and other papers, Nueva York, Philosophical Library, 1949.
Price, D. J. "Networks of scientific papers", Science 149, 1965, pp. 510-515.
Sargent, T.J. "Rational expectations, the real rate of interest, and the natural rate of unemployment", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, 1973, pp. 429-480.
Sargent, T.J. y N. Wallace. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy", Studies in Monetary Economics 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1974.
Sargent, T.J. y N. Wallace. "Rational expectations, the optimal monetary instrument, and the optimal money supply rule", Journal of Political Economy 83, 2, 1975, pp. 241-254.
Seidman, L. "The New Classical counter-revolution: A false path for macroeconomics", Eastern Economic Journal 31, 1, 2005, pp. 131-140.
Sims, C. "Comparisons of inter-war and post-war business cycles: Monetarism reconsidered", American Economic Review 70, 2, 1980, pp. 250-257.
Solow, R.M. "Summary and evaluation", After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of high inflation and high unemployment, Proceedings of a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference, Edgartown, Massachusetts, junio de 1978.
Wang, D.; C. Song y A.L. Barabási. "Quantifying long-term scientific impact", Science 342, 2013, pp. 127-132.
Woodford, M. "Revolution and evolution in Twentieth-Century macroeconomics", presentado en la conferencia Frontiers of the Mind in the Twenty-First Century, Washington, Library of Congress, junio de 1999, pp. 14-18.
Woodford, M. "Convergence in macroeconomics: Elements of the new synthesis", American Economics Journal: Macroeconomics 1, 1, 2009, pp. 267-279.
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