Repensar la profundización financiera: estabilidad y crecimiento en los mercados emergentes
Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets
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Sahay, R., Čihák, M., N’Diaye, P., Barajas, A., Bi, R., Ayala, D., Gao, Y., Kyobe, A., Nguyen, L., Saborowski, C., Svirydzenka, K. y Reza Yousefi, S. 2015. Repensar la profundización financiera: estabilidad y crecimiento en los mercados emergentes. Revista de Economía Institucional. 17, 33 (dic. 2015), 73–108. DOI:https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v17n33.04.
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En este escrito se usa una nueva medida del desarrollo financiero para mostrar que la mayoría de los mercados emergentes aún puede obtener beneficios de crecimiento y estabilidad con un mayor desarrollo financiero. Primero define el desarrollo financiero como una combinación de profundidad, acceso y eficiencia. Luego muestra que el crecimiento económico se debilita a mayores niveles de desarrollo financiero y que el ritmo del desarrollo financiero es importante; además propone una nueva manera de ver los “tradeoffs” de la regulación financiera. Concluye que no hay una secuencia única en el desarrollo de las instituciones y los mercados financieros, aunque se observa cuando las economías se desarrollan los beneficios relativos de las instituciones disminuyen y los de los mercados aumentan.
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Angeles, L. “Credit expansion and the real economy”, Applied Economics Letters 1-9, 2015.
Arcand, J.-L.; E. Berkes y U. Panizza. “Too much finance?” IMF working paper 12/161, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Bagehot, W. Lombard Street, Homewood, Ill., Richard D. Irwin, 1873.
Barajas, A.; R. Chami y S. R. Yousefi. “The finance and growth nexus re-examined: Do all countries benefit equally?”, IMF working paper 13/130, Washington, D. C., 2013.
Beck, T.; B. Büyükkarabacak et al. “Stock markets, banks and growth:Panel evidence”, Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 3, 2004, pp.423-442.
Beck, T.; B. Büyükkarabacak et al. “Who gets the credit? And does it matter? Enterprise vs. household credit across countries”, Center discussion paper, Tilburg University, Germany, 2009.
Bernanke, B.; M. Gertler y S. Gilchrist. “The financial accelerator in
quantitative business cycle framework”, NBER working paper 6455, Cambridge, Mass., 1999.
Cecchetti, S. G. y E. Kharroubi. “Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?”, BIS working paper 490, Basilea, 2015.
?ihák, M.; A. Demirgüç-K. et al. “Benchmarking financial development around the world”, World Bank policy research working paper 6175, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Dabla-N., E. y N. Srivisal. “Revisiting the link between finance and macroeconomic volatility”, IMF working paper 13/29, Washington,D. C., 2013.
Dabla-N., E.; S. Guo et al. “The new normal: A sector-level perspective on growth and productivity trends in advanced economies”,IMF staff discussion note, Washington, D. C., 2015.
De Gregorio, J. y P. Guidotti. “Financial development and economic growth”, World Development 23, 3, 1995, pp. 433-448.
De la Torre, A.; A. Ize y S. Schmuckler. Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, Washington, D. C., World Bank, 2012.
Eugster, J. “Nonlinear marginal effects of finance on growth”, no publicado, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2014.
Gallego, F. y N. Loayza. “Financial structure in Chile: Macroeconomic developments and microeconomic effects”, working paper 75, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, 2000.
Gennaioli, N.; A. Shleifer y R. Vishny. “Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility”, Journal of Financial Economics 104, 3, 2012, pp. 452-468.
IMF. “Shadow banking around the globe: How large and how risky?”, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington, D. C., octubre de 2014a. 105
IMF. “How do changes in the investor base and financial deepening affect emerging market economies?”, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington, D. C., abril de 2014b.
IMF. Toward new horizons: Arab economic transformation amid political transitions, Washington, D. C., 2014c.
IMF. Review of the financial sector assessment program: Further adaptation to the post crisis era, Washington, D. C., 2014d.
IMF. World Economic Outlook, Washington, D. C., octubre de 2014e.
IMF, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,and OECD. “Local currency bond markets – A diagnostic framework”, Washington, D. C., 2013.
Kamil, H. y K. Rai. “The global credit crunch and foreign banks’ lending to EMs: Why did Latin America fare better?”, working paper 10/102, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2010.
Khan, M.; A. Senhadji y B. Smith. “Inflation and financial depth”, working paper 01/44, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2001.
King, R. y R. Levine. “Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 3, 1993, pp. 717-737.
Laeven, L. y F. Valencia. “Systemic banking crises database: An update”,IMF working paper 12/163, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Levine, R. “Finance and growth: Theory and evidence”, Ph. Aghion y S. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of economic growth, Nueva York, Elsevier, 2005, pp. 865-934.
Levine, R.; N. Loayza y T. Beck. “Finance and the sources of growth”,Journal of Financial Economics 58, 1-2, 2000, pp. 261-300.
Loayza, N. y R. Ranciere. “Financial development, financial fragility,and growth”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, 4, 2006, pp.1051-1076.
McKinnon, R. Money and capital in economic development, Washington,D. C., Brookings Institution, 1973.
Nili, M. y M. Rastad. “Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development”, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Finance 46, 5, 2007, pp. 726-740.
Philippon, T. y A. Reshef. “Wages and human capital in the U.S. finance industry: 1909-2006”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, 4, 2012, pp. 1551-1169.
Philippon, T. y A. Reshef. “An international look at the growth of modern finance”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, 2, 2013, pp. 73-96.
Rajan, R. “Has financial development made the world riskier?”, NBER working paper 11728, Cambridge, Mass., 2005.
Robinson, J. “The generalization of the General Theory”, The rate of interest and other essays, Londres, Macmillan, 1952.
Rousseau, P. y P. Wachtel. “What is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth?”, Economic Inquiry 49, 1, 2011, pp. 276-288.
Shaw, E. Financial deepening in economic development, Nueva York,Oxford University Press, 1973.
Wolf, M. “Why dealing with the huge debt overhang is so hard”, Financial Times, 27 de enero de 2009.
World Bank. Global financial development report 2014 – Financial inclusion, Washington, D. C., 2014.
Angeles, L. “Credit expansion and the real economy”, Applied Economics Letters 1-9, 2015.
Arcand, J.-L.; E. Berkes y U. Panizza. “Too much finance?” IMF working paper 12/161, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Bagehot, W. Lombard Street, Homewood, Ill., Richard D. Irwin, 1873.
Barajas, A.; R. Chami y S. R. Yousefi. “The finance and growth nexus re-examined: Do all countries benefit equally?”, IMF working paper 13/130, Washington, D. C., 2013.
Beck, T.; B. Büyükkarabacak et al. “Stock markets, banks and growth:Panel evidence”, Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 3, 2004, pp.423-442.
Beck, T.; B. Büyükkarabacak et al. “Who gets the credit? And does it matter? Enterprise vs. household credit across countries”, Center discussion paper, Tilburg University, Germany, 2009.
Bernanke, B.; M. Gertler y S. Gilchrist. “The financial accelerator in
quantitative business cycle framework”, NBER working paper 6455, Cambridge, Mass., 1999.
Cecchetti, S. G. y E. Kharroubi. “Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?”, BIS working paper 490, Basilea, 2015.
?ihák, M.; A. Demirgüç-K. et al. “Benchmarking financial development around the world”, World Bank policy research working paper 6175, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Dabla-N., E. y N. Srivisal. “Revisiting the link between finance and macroeconomic volatility”, IMF working paper 13/29, Washington,D. C., 2013.
Dabla-N., E.; S. Guo et al. “The new normal: A sector-level perspective on growth and productivity trends in advanced economies”,IMF staff discussion note, Washington, D. C., 2015.
De Gregorio, J. y P. Guidotti. “Financial development and economic growth”, World Development 23, 3, 1995, pp. 433-448.
De la Torre, A.; A. Ize y S. Schmuckler. Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, Washington, D. C., World Bank, 2012.
Eugster, J. “Nonlinear marginal effects of finance on growth”, no publicado, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2014.
Gallego, F. y N. Loayza. “Financial structure in Chile: Macroeconomic developments and microeconomic effects”, working paper 75, Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, 2000.
Gennaioli, N.; A. Shleifer y R. Vishny. “Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility”, Journal of Financial Economics 104, 3, 2012, pp. 452-468.
IMF. “Shadow banking around the globe: How large and how risky?”, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington, D. C., octubre de 2014a. 105
IMF. “How do changes in the investor base and financial deepening affect emerging market economies?”, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington, D. C., abril de 2014b.
IMF. Toward new horizons: Arab economic transformation amid political transitions, Washington, D. C., 2014c.
IMF. Review of the financial sector assessment program: Further adaptation to the post crisis era, Washington, D. C., 2014d.
IMF. World Economic Outlook, Washington, D. C., octubre de 2014e.
IMF, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,and OECD. “Local currency bond markets – A diagnostic framework”, Washington, D. C., 2013.
Kamil, H. y K. Rai. “The global credit crunch and foreign banks’ lending to EMs: Why did Latin America fare better?”, working paper 10/102, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2010.
Khan, M.; A. Senhadji y B. Smith. “Inflation and financial depth”, working paper 01/44, IMF, Washington, D. C., 2001.
King, R. y R. Levine. “Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 3, 1993, pp. 717-737.
Laeven, L. y F. Valencia. “Systemic banking crises database: An update”,IMF working paper 12/163, Washington, D. C., 2012.
Levine, R. “Finance and growth: Theory and evidence”, Ph. Aghion y S. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of economic growth, Nueva York, Elsevier, 2005, pp. 865-934.
Levine, R.; N. Loayza y T. Beck. “Finance and the sources of growth”,Journal of Financial Economics 58, 1-2, 2000, pp. 261-300.
Loayza, N. y R. Ranciere. “Financial development, financial fragility,and growth”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, 4, 2006, pp.1051-1076.
McKinnon, R. Money and capital in economic development, Washington,D. C., Brookings Institution, 1973.
Nili, M. y M. Rastad. “Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development”, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Finance 46, 5, 2007, pp. 726-740.
Philippon, T. y A. Reshef. “Wages and human capital in the U.S. finance industry: 1909-2006”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, 4, 2012, pp. 1551-1169.
Philippon, T. y A. Reshef. “An international look at the growth of modern finance”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, 2, 2013, pp. 73-96.
Rajan, R. “Has financial development made the world riskier?”, NBER working paper 11728, Cambridge, Mass., 2005.
Robinson, J. “The generalization of the General Theory”, The rate of interest and other essays, Londres, Macmillan, 1952.
Rousseau, P. y P. Wachtel. “What is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth?”, Economic Inquiry 49, 1, 2011, pp. 276-288.
Shaw, E. Financial deepening in economic development, Nueva York,Oxford University Press, 1973.
Wolf, M. “Why dealing with the huge debt overhang is so hard”, Financial Times, 27 de enero de 2009.
World Bank. Global financial development report 2014 – Financial inclusion, Washington, D. C., 2014.
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